i.b.d.: identical by descent

Consider relatives A and B

What is the probability that for any gene the alleles are i.b.d.?

|Probability|# identical|
|————————|
|$c_2$|both|
|$c_1$|one|
|$c_0$|neither|

$c_2 + c_1 + c_0 = 1$

$a= 1 + \delta a + e$

From Haldan and Jayacar(1962) tables of r (coefficient of relationship) are presented.

f: coefficient of relationship or of inbreeding; the probability that if A has produced a gamete carrying a rare gene, the first tested gamete of B will carry the same gene.

$\phi$ is for sex linked genes in gametes

For diploid genotypes F and $\Phi$ are used

|Relation|Symbol|Converse|f|F|$\phi_{11}$|$\phi_{12}$|$\phi_{21}$|$\phi_{22}$|$\Phi$|
|—-|
|Degree 1|
|Parent||Child|$\frac{1}{4}$|0|0|$\frac{1}{2}$|$\frac{1}{2}$|$\frac{1}{4}$|0|
|Degree 2|
|Mother’s Parent||Daughter’s Child|$\frac{1}{8}$|0|$\frac{1}{2}$|$\frac{1}{4}$|$\frac{1}{4}$|$\frac{1}{8}$|0|
|Father’s Parent||Son’s Child|$\frac{1}{8}$|0|0|0|0|$\frac{1}{4}$|0|
|Maternal half sib|W|S|$\frac{1}{8}$|0|$\frac{1}{2}$|$\frac{1}{4}$|$\frac{1}{4}$|$\frac{1}{8}$|0|
|Paternal half sib|H|S|$\frac{1}{8}$|0|0|0|0|$\frac{1}{4}$|0|
|Full sib|M|S|$\frac{1}{4}$|$\frac{1}{4}$|$\frac{1}{2}$|$\frac{1}{4}$|$\frac{1}{4}$|$\frac{3}{8}$|$\frac{1}{2}$|

Consider all the afflictions of Mother Earth - CO2 production, monoculture, resource extraction (oil, strip mining), pollution, deforestation, species extinction, etc. There is a single root cause: overpopulation. Why aren’t we talking about overpopulation instead of increasing automobile fuel efficiency by 1%? Or building windmills? Because the overpopulation problems isn’t amongst western european populations. It’s in China, India, and sub-saharan Africa. Close the borders and prevent North America from being used as the overpopulation pressure relief valve by third world countries, China, India.

A high-density population causes a loss of humanity, community and solidarity
by Konrad Lorenz in Managerism

If a population is too dense with overcrowding, then disinterest, disengagement and unfriendly behavior becomes widespread. This can be witnessed daily at rail stations, airports, shopping centers, stadiums and mega-events. Excessive social contact causes people to become unnaturally disinterested in each other. Close proximity can trigger aggression, and breeds mass behavior and indifference. Translated for the present day, this means that social media like Facebook and similar, while appearing to promote friendship and solidarity, actually encourage more disconnected and superficial communication. The lesson to be learned is that lasting solutions are to be found in a world of communities which are overseeable: human-scale, local and controllable – and not national or global.

White men can now tell black woman to stop having so many babies.

The population of India compared to other countries:

Wealthy widows, the Catholic church, and individualism.

Energy expansions of evolution

Crown shyness

Urban Tree Database

i-Tree

NY Census

“Demography is destiny” or “it’s all about reproduction”.

World’s most important graph according to Steve Sailer:

Sub Saharan Africa growth projected to double from 1.1 billion in 2013 to 2.4 billion in 2050 according to the Population Reference Bureau

It’s not just number of children per woman that is often referenced, but generation time, mortality, and even levels of altruism within a hosting population.

Let’s write a shiny app that will allow us to gain some insight by manipulating the relevant variables. The equations useful for estimates can be found in your population genetics textbook. I will use a simplified method of calculating population growth outlined by Wahl and DeHaan (2004). This simplified model will ignore complicating variables such as birth of males, gestation time and staggered births. Essentially I will be treating humans as dividing bacteria. Though a simplified model, you can still gain a sense of the synergism between generation time and fecundity.

In this model, the number of offspring N after some number of generations G given fecundtity (number of offspring per woman) F is:

$$N=F^G$$

I will fix the starting populations at 10 and perform calculations for 200 years, enough to get a feel for what our grandchildren might experience.

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t <- seq(20, 200, by=20)   ##t is in years

t (time in years) will serve as the abcissa of my plot.

The terminology I will use in the app is “Host” (suffix h; also called population 1, or p1) for the population accepting immigrants, and “Invaders” (suffix i; population 2 or p2) as the population of immigrants. To build your mental model, consider the host country something like America, and the immigrant source country some subsaharan country unconcerned with population growth and unaware of the concept of limited resources.

The growth equations:

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x.h <- p1f^(t/p1g)
x.i <- p2f^(t/p2g)

p1f (fecundity) and p1g (generation time) hold input from the sliders. Consider the power t/p1g. If t is 20 years, and the input p1g is 20 years, 20/20 = 1 generation.

Next set up the plot. As it is difficult to get a sense of the magnitude of the differences generated with slider input, I want to calculate the difference in population size after 200 years and print that as annotation on the plot.

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delta <- format(abs( x.h[10] - x.i[10] ), scientific=TRUE, digits=3)
ycoord <- 0.5*(max(x.h[10], x.i[10]))
ycoord2 <- 0.2*(max(x.h[10], x.i[10]))
    
xcoord <- 170 
    
d <- data.frame(cbind(t, x.h, x.i))
ggplot(d, aes(t, x.h)) + geom_point( aes(size=3)) + labs(title="Fecundity X Generation Time") + geom_point(data=d, aes(t, x.i, col="red", size=3)) + annotate("text", x = xcoord, y = ycoord, label = paste("Difference after 200 years = ", delta, sep="")) + scale_y_log10() + theme(legend.position="none") + xlab("Years") + ylab("Population Size")
   

Consider a mixed population with equal numbers of Hosts and Invaders (10 each) after 200 years with equal fecundity (2) and a generation time of 20 years for the host, 15 years for the invaders. After 200 years the invaders outnumber hosts 10:1. It’s all downhill from there.

The app is hosted at shinyapps.io

Code is available on github

Core features

Manchester, NH, once the largest industrial city in the world

Manchester at the vanguard of math education.

“As political and economic freedom diminishes, sexual freedom tends compensatingly to increase.” Aldous Huxley, 1946

…there’s something profoundly liberating about leaving academe, whereupon you are no longer obliged to give a shit about fashionable thinkers, network at the planet’s most boring parties, or quantify self-worth for scurrilous committees (and whereupon you are free to ignore the latest same-old controversy), for even when you know at the time that the place is toxic, only after you exit (spiritually, not physically) and write an essay or read a novel or complete some other task without considering its relevance to the fascist gods of assessment, or its irrelevance to a gang of cynical senior colleagues, do you realize exactly how insidious and pervasive is the industry’s culture of social control. Steve Salaita

I’ve always overvalued recalcitrance, a sensibility, as I understand it, that vigorously avoids situations that require ass-kissing, usually resulting in significant reputational harm. Steve Salaita

By their very nature, it is said, women are the source of nearly all discord and litigation within the community. Through their ceaseless enticements to adultery, their notorious insensitivity to the sensible commands of father, husband, and brother, and their mindless passion for gossip and intrigue—in these and countless other ways women are the bane of a peaceful society. Donald Tuzin, Rituals of Manhood, 1982.

Companies find it incredibly hard to reliably staff positions with hard-working generalists who operate autonomously and have high risk tolerances. This is not the modal employee, including at places which are justifiably proud of the skill/diligence/etc of their employees.

Today’s lark is tomorrow’s regret. Do yourself a favor and embed as few regrets as possible, especially those that erode future happiness in marriage.
David

…granted that the people involved in feature films are often super-talented and are often working at a very high level, I’d just rather not be around them, let alone be subjected to their hustle and overbearingness.
Paleo Retiree

“If there’s one word that sums up everything that’s gone wrong since the war, it’s Workshop.” Kingsley Amos

“Among the Yanomamö, there are two key motives that spur men to declare war on another tribe—a desire to capture the wives of other men and a desire to recapture wives that were lost in previous raids. When the American anthropologist Napoleon Chagnon explained to his Yanomamö informants that the United States waged war for principles such as freedom and democracy, they were astonished. It seemed absurd to them to risk one’s life for anything other than capturing or recapturing women.” in The Evolution of Desire David M Buss

“The ultimate measure of human success is not production but reproduction.” Pierre L. van den Berghe The Ethnic Phenomenom

10 year whiskey in weeks

One Man’s Quest to Make 20-Year-Old Rum in Just Six Days

This guy says he can make 20 year old rum in 6 days.

• Oak catalyzed esterification
• Fermentation distillation
• Aldehydes phenols ethyl-butyrate esterification; ethyl octanoate; ethyl propanoate; isovaleraldehyde
• Model 1 reactor
• Break the wood polymers then force esterification
• Terressentia
• Terrepure;
• Orville Tyler